【华泰证券：美联储后续降息决策取决于关税及数据 特别是就业数据】金十数据5月8日讯，华泰证券研报指出，虽然近期美国软数据（soft data）整体走弱，但硬数据（hard data）维持稳健，且关税政策以及失业率/通胀前景存在较大不确定性。5月会议显示美联储维持此前的观望立场，不急于降息，计划等待形势明朗后再行动，且降息决策要取决于失业率和通胀之间的权衡。往前看，美联储后续降息决策主要取决于hard data的走势，特别是就业数据。如果就业数据在6月会议前明显走弱，而4-5月通胀压力仍可控，那么美联储仍有一定概率在6月降息，否则美联储再次降息决策可能要推迟到7月或者以后。后续我们继续重点关注美国关税政策的变化以及包括就业数据在内的hard data以判断联储的降息决策。
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