Upstart Tumbles on Second-Quarter Outlook, Even as Its Full-Year Forecast Gets More Upbeat

Dow Jones
07 May

Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc. tumbled after hours on Tuesday after the artificial-intelligence lending platform forecast a second-quarter loss and sales that missed Wall Street’s expectations.

Upstart made that forecast as analysts zero in on the company’s bottom line, and efforts to improve it, amid questions about demand for loans against a backdrop of high interest rates.

Still, for the full year, Upstart’s outlook for profitability got a bit brighter. And it reported a jump in loans during the first quarter.

Upstart, which uses AI to make lending decisions and help borrowers find banks that will loan them money, said it expects revenue of around $225 million for the second quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet forecast $226.2 million. Management also said they expected a net loss of around $10 million, a bit worse than what analysts were expecting.

Shares fell 16.7% after hours on Tuesday. However, the stock, which can be volatile after earnings, is still up more than 110% over the past 12 months.

Some of those gains came after the company in the fourth quarter got close to returning to GAAP profitability, or the standard that uses generally accepted accounting principles. Upstart last posted a yearly GAAP profit in 2021. An analyst at Mizuho had said better GAAP profitability “opens the door to a new cohort of large investors.”

However, higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve since have posed a threat to demand from borrowers, many of whom have struggled to keep up with bill payments and higher costs of living.

For the full year, Upstart on Tuesday said it expects revenue of around $1.01 billion. That compares with its forecast in February for “approximately $1 billion.”

Upstart on Tuesday also said it expects full-year GAAP net income to be “positive in the second half of the year and positive for the full calendar year.” In February, the company said it expected that metric “to be at least breakeven.”

During the first quarter, the company originated 240,706 loans, a 102% jump year over year. Revenue of $213 million was up 67% year over year and above FactSet forecasts for $201.3 million.

Upstart reported adjusted earnings of 30 cents a share, above the 17 cents a share estimated by FactSet. On a GAAP basis, Upstart lost $2.4 million during the quarter, far narrower than the $64.6 million a year ago.

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