BP (BP, Financial) jumped nearly 2.7% at 10.18am today—while its home exchange was on holiday. Why? Because Shell (SHEL, Financial) might finally be making a move that's been whispered about for decades: buying its long-time British rival. Bloomberg reports that Shell has been quietly working with advisers, exploring the mechanics of a takeover—but it's holding its fire for now, waiting to see if BP's stock and crude prices drop further. If it happens, this would be one of the biggest oil mergers in history—reshaping the global energy map overnight.

BP desperately needs a spark. Shares have cratered 25.4% over the past year as the market lost faith in its net-zero pivot. New CEO Murray Auchincloss is trying to reverse course—cutting buybacks, re-embracing oil, and promising asset sales. But investors want more. Activist heavyweight Elliott Investment Management just revealed a 5% stake and is pushing BP to make bold, structural moves. That's added fuel to the M&A chatter—and suddenly, Shell's interest doesn't look so far-fetched. BP's underperformance hasn't just been recent—it's systemic. The company's financials, visualized in the chart below, show fluctuating revenue, inconsistent EBITDA, and multiple years of little net income. That makes it ripe for disruption—and to Shell, possibly a discounted prize with estimated synergies of $5–7 billion a year.

Still, nothing's set in stone. Shell could just keep doing what it's already doing—buying back shares and cherry-picking bolt-on deals. “We are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification,” a company spokesperson said. Translation: we're in control, but we're watching everything. Behind the scenes, other oil majors are also said to be eyeing BP. If this turns into a bidding war, things could get wild—fast.