金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示,4月,该行覆盖的互联网及教育公司股价:云音乐+22%/有道+17%/新东方+5%/阅文+5%/网易+4%涨幅位于前列,好未来-34%/京东-21%/爱奇艺19%/美团-16%/汇通达-12%跌幅较大。覆盖公司港股通持仓比例均有提升。5月,中概及互联网公司将陆续发布1季报:电商方面,受益于国补扩品类以及家电需求逐月回暖,2025上半年低基数效应或带动预期有上调空间。OTA方面,业绩增长符合预期。本地生活方面,京东即时零售进入外卖或带来短期补贴波动,业绩影响或在2季度有所体现。该行认为外卖行业配送提效壁垒相比团购更高,预计行业格局将持续稳定。游戏及文娱方面,腾讯常青游戏表现稳定,关注新游《胜利女神:新的希望》公测后表现;网易关注手游流水拐点。文娱行业中,音乐订阅延续稳健增长(15-20%),短剧进一步侵蚀部分长剧基本盘。
该行指,受海外不确定性影响,目前大部分公司估值相比2024年平均水平较低,该行看好业绩稳健,以及AI加持下,业务扩张想象空间带动估值提升机会的优秀公司,如阿里(09988)、腾讯(00700)、网易(09999)、携程(09961)、美团(03690)。
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