【不确定性因素较多 集运指数或延续震荡】金十期货5月6日讯，昨日马士基开舱W20，报价$1450/FEU，为当前市场内最低价，体现航司对5月上旬的装载率走高的信心不佳，预计即期运价仍将维持偏弱走势，但受成本支撑及传统旺季货量托底，下行斜率或趋缓。展望后续，需求端中国对欧出口货量维持平稳，传统补库需求有望推动5月下半月起出货量环比改善。但供应端5月下旬计划运力回升至28—30万TEU/周，虽较4月下旬30万+/周有所缓解，但仍不足以触发爆仓行情。06合约受限于潜在涨价窗口仅有5月下旬和6月上旬，叠加中美关税僵局未解，面临“弱现实”与“弱预期”双重压制，短期或延续偏弱震荡；08合约隐含关税政策改善预期博弈，但政策转向节奏不确定性较高，需警惕消息面反复引发的脉冲波动。
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