Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. On Holding (ONON) earns a Zacks Rank #2 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.25 a share, just eight days from its upcoming earnings release on May 13, 2025.
ONON has an Earnings ESP figure of 4.17%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.25 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24.
ONON is part of a big group of Retail-Wholesale stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Dollar General (DG) as well.
Slated to report earnings on May 29, 2025, Dollar General holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.48 a share 24 days from its next quarterly update.
For Dollar General, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.46 is 0.99%.
ONON and DG's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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On Holding AG (ONON) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Dollar General Corporation (DG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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