【铁矿石：铁水产量维持高位 五月份可以抄底铁矿石吗？】金十期货5月6日讯，五一期间，新交所铁矿掉期收跌0.62%，青岛港PB粉收跌1.13%。4月底铁矿石到港增加、港口库存止降转增；钢厂高炉复产带动铁水产量维持高位，全国日均铁水产量245.42万吨，环比增1.07万吨；供增需减态势延续，基本面存在边际转弱风险。中辉期货分析师吴明近认为，黑色系“金三银四”落空后，行业即将逐步进入季节性淡季，尽管铁水产量依然坚挺，但是按目前铁水产量看，5月份大概率将是钢材产量的峰值。供应增加、需求减弱、“粗钢压产”传闻反复叠加宏观情绪持续承压的情况下，铁矿石短期大概率维持低位震荡运行为主。不过铁矿石的主要定价权还是要看国际“四大矿山”，短期不建议过度看空铁矿石，远月09合约倾向于在700大关下方企稳后、择机埋伏远月中长线或更有性价比；短线有效上破日线图20日线顺势跟进则需谨慎，关注国内市场情绪企稳情况。
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