EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets fall amid trade uncertainties; focus on rate decisions in Brazil, US this week

Reuters
06 May
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets fall amid trade uncertainties; focus on rate decisions in Brazil, US this week

Latin American stocks down 1.4% and FX down 0.6%

Brazil's central bank expected to deliver 50 bps rate hike on Wednesday

South African rand hits five-week high after Eskom's positive power outlook

Taiwan's dollar extends two-day historic run

Updates with afternoon trading levels

By Medha Singh and Nikhil Sharma

May 5 (Reuters) - Latin American assets fell on Monday as investors continued to face uncertainties from U.S. trade policies, while central bank decisions in the United States and Brazil later this week were also in focus.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS slipped 0.6%, while the MSCI index for Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS fell 1.4%, on pace for its worst single day in nearly a month.

Adding another layer to global trade uncertainties, Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the U.S. but provided no details on how such levies would be implemented.

"We'll probably see more noise related to the trade war. We have increased uncertainty and that's the name of the game right now; volatility, uncertainty with some broad positivity and then followed by downside sentiment," said Andres Abadia, chief LatAm economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Despite a market-rattling trade war, assets in the region have benefited from a slide in the dollar and relatively lower U.S. import tariffs for its products.

Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP was a standout among the broader emerging market currencies, soaring more than 5% in an unprecedented two-session run.

The surge stoked speculations that Taiwan was letting its currency appreciate to win U.S. trade concessions. But Taiwan President Lai Ching-te called on people not to spread fake stories about foreign exchange rate talks with the United States.

Brazil's real BRL= was down 0.5% as investors awaited the country's central bank's policy decision on Wednesday, with wider expectations of a 50-basis-point rate hike.

Private economists polled by Brazil's central bank expect monetary easing to start at the end of 2025, in contrast to most major economies, which are in an easing cycle.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the country has the conditions to grow at an average pace of 3% per year, which is the goal of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration.

The country's main stock index .BVSP was down 1.2%, with heavyweight state-run oil firm Petrobras PETR4.SA shedding 3.3%. The company said it will lower diesel prices for the third time this year.

Last Wednesday, Colombia's central bank cut rates in a surprise move. Minutes from the central bank's meeting last week are set to be released on Tuesday. The Colombian peso COP= was down 1.1%.

Focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision later this week, with wider expectations that the central bank will keep rates on hold.

Mexico's peso MXN= fell 0.5% against the dollar, tracking lower crude prices. President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a press conference that Mexican officials are set to lay out measures to strengthen the nation's economy.

The Argentine peso ARS=RASL was the worst-performing currency for the day, down 2.5%.

Currencies elsewhere in emerging markets were stronger. The South African rand ZAR=D3 scaled its highest levels in five weeks after state utility Eskom said it was optimistic about the power outlook over the southern hemisphere winter.

The Russian rouble RUB= strengthened against the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, despite falling oil prices and threats of more Western sanctions.

Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned on Monday, a day after a far-right opposition leader won the first round of the presidential election re-run and his own candidate crashed out of the race.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1147.66

1.27

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2162.04

-1.39

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

133430.5

-1.26

Mexico IPC .MXX

55772.05

-0.07

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8019.53

-0.25

Argentina MerVal .MERV

2063317.44

-1.79

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1636.01

-0.36

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.6869

-0.53

Mexico peso MXN=

19.669

-0.53

Chile peso CLP=

939.72

0.75

Colombia peso COP=

4300.5

-1.13

Peru sol PEN=

3.664

-0.41

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1,200.0

-2.13

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1,185.0

0

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Alan Barona)

((Medha.Singh@thomsonreuters.com; +91 80 6210 0592; X, formerly Twitter: @medhasinghs;))

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