While Wall Street expects Shopify to report healthy first-quarter results, the stock could still catch cold. Investors are eager for news about how President Donald Trump's trade war could affect the platform's base of small and medium-size merchants.

The e-commerce company is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell Thursday. A call with investors is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

"Our sense is 1Q25 results will be solid, as broader e-comm and retail spend trends were generally stable sequentially (after accounting for the leap year impact), but investor focus will be on the 2Q25 guide and [management] commentary around merchant exposure to tariffs," wrote Reginald Smith, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. He rates the stock Overweight with a $124 price target.

While Shopify has been trying to lure bigger retailers onto its platform, a good chunk of its clients are still smaller merchants. Those businesses may feel the effects of tariffs and other changes to trade policy -- including the closing of a loophole that allowed parcels valued at less than $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free -- more acutely, said Charlie Miner, an analyst at the consulting firm Third Bridge. That could force Shopify to cut its forecast for revenue, he said.

Cross-border orders comprised just 14% of Shopify's gross merchandise volume in the prior quarter, executives said in March. But some investors are still worried that "trade risks are more closely aligned with imported merchant inventory," wrote Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong.

Investors want to know what share of the merchandise sold on Spotify comes from China, making it subject to the current 145% tariff rate. Wong's conversations with investors suggest there is a "wide range of potential outcomes," with estimates ranging from the low double digits to more than 40%.

Shopify's financial guidance for the first quarter, issued in February, factored in some tariff effects. Investors gave a mixed reception to that call, which included slightly higher operating expenses and tempered views on profit growth. That cautious outlook may have helped the company in resetting investors' expectations, providing a lower bar to beat.

Analysts expect Shopify to report adjusted earnings of 26 cents a share for the quarter ended in March, according to FactSet. Ahead of the company's February earnings report, analysts were expecting earnings of 28 cents a share.

Sales are projected to come in at $2.36 billion, a roughly 27% increase from the prior year.

Shopify stock is down 11% this year, more than double the S&P 500's 4.3% loss. Shares closed 0.7% higher at $94.50 on Wednesday.

Few on Wall Street seem concerned that Shopify's core fundamentals and business proposition are at risk. Most analysts covering the stock -- 61% -- still rate shares a Buy, according to FactSet.

"We are cautiously optimistic that Shopify's global share take position, and its generally higher income demo can partially offset macro/tariff-related weakness," wrote Mark Zgutowicz, an analyst at Benchmark Equity Research. He reiterated a Buy rating on the stock ahead of earnings, even though he lowered his price target to $125 from $150.

Oppenheimer's Wong agrees. He maintained an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the report.

"Our checks suggest SHOP demand remains intact and most investors do not expect a complete drop off in cross-border transactions due to tariffs," he wrote. Wong also expects Shopify's momentum in its point-of-sale business, which sells hardware retailers use for in-store checkouts, to continue as the company expands to new international markets.