DWS:料美联储五月按兵不动 市场焦点仍将集中在通胀上

智通财经
May 06, 2025

智通财经APP获悉, DWS首席美国经济学家Christian Scherrmann 发表《五月FOMC会议前瞻》报告,预期美联储在五月的会议上不会作出重大货币政策调整。美联储官员或会释出对经济动力信心减弱的信号。会后声明对经济增长的描述可能会转为“温和”,但仍会强调劳动市场“稳健”。

整体而言,DWS认为“美联储将采取略为鹰派的措辞,但实际上是延长按兵不动的立场”。

报告指,美联储目前处于进退两难的局面。一方面,最新公布的通胀数据低于预期,可能是过去趋势的延续。另一方面,市场预期关税将带来影响,进而推高通胀预期。此外,最终关税政策走向或未来财政政策的变化等关键因素仍未明朗。由于这种不确定性,官员先考虑数据情况再作回应,或许才是审慎之举。若在高度不确定的情况下过早行动,可能会误判方向,不是助长通胀压力,就是不必要地遏抑需求。

中期而言,市场焦点仍会集中在通胀上,尤其是关税是否会引发第二轮影响,例如供应链中断,或需求转向国内产能较低的行业。DWS预期美联储至少会继续观望,直至经济活动明显放缓,及劳动市场疲弱为市场带来通缩预期。这种情况可能会在下半年出现,因此DWS仍预计未来12个月内美联储将减息最多三次。

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