巴克莱研究团队发表报告指,由于经济前景不确定性进一步增加,联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)宣布将政策利率维持在4.25-4.50%区间,与市场预期一致。巴克维持基本预期,即 FOMC 将在今年7月和9月分别减息25个基点,并在2026年再次减息两次(分别在6月和9月)。该行认为,FOMC 将维持相对紧缩的政策立场,以令通胀最终回到目标水平,但同时避免经济放缓和劳动力市场进一步恶化。
会议声明指出,尽管美国第一季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)收缩,但经济活动仍持续稳健增长,并提到净出口的波动对数据产生影响。声明亦补充指,FOMC 认为失业率上升和通胀加剧的风险已经增加。
美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,FOMC 并不急于调整利率,当前的政策足以应对所面临的风险和不确定性。他亦强调需要稳定长期通胀预期,以确保物价水平暂时性上涨不会演变成持续的通胀问题。他重申,有必要稳定物价以实现长期强劲的劳动力市场。
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