Marvell Stock Falls 10%. What's Hurting the Former AI Chip Favorite

Dow Jones
07 May

Marvell Technology was falling sharply Wednesday after the company postponed its investor day in the face of market uncertainty.

It's another blow for a stock which has lost its status as a favored play on the artificial-intelligence trend.

The designer of data-storage and networking chips said it had decided to postpone its previously scheduled investor-day event from June 10 to an unspecified future date in 2026, citing "the dynamic macroeconomic environment," in a statement late on Tuesday.

At the same time, Marvell reaffirmed the midpoint of first-quarter revenue guidance and narrowed its range. It expects revenue of about $1.875 billion, with a range of plus or minus 2%.

The stock was down 10.16% at $55 on Wednesday. That's set to add to a 45% drop this year so far through Tuesday's close, which has wiped out all of Marvell's gains from 2024.

Marvell became a market darling last year alongside peer Broadcom as investors bet that its clients -- which analysts believe include Google-parent Alphabet, Amazon.com and Microsoft -- would spend heavily on the company's custom chip designs as they sought alternatives to Nvidia hardware.

However, poorly received guidance alongside quarterly earnings in March sunk the stock as investors soured on AI plays amid tariff uncertainty. Marvell has also been hit by concerns that it might lose out on designing the next generation of Amazon's custom Trainium AI chips.

"The postponed investor day will only add to the wall of worry that has developed around the name, particularly around Marvell's ASIC [application-specific integrated circuit] opportunity following reports that Taiwanese competitor Alchip has won Amazon's next-generation Trainium 3 project," wrote William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji in a research note.

Marvell did not immediately respond to a request for comment early Wednesday.

However Naji still sees opportunity in the shares, reiterating an Outperform rating on Marvell stock. He noted the company now trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of just 21 times his forecast for its 2025 earnings and 18 times its forecast 2026 earnings -- a far cry from the forward earnings multiple of more than 40 times it carried late last year.

"While at these levels the stock is not expensive, we worry that the shares may be range-bound until investor confidence in Marvell's custom chip pipeline improves," Naji wrote.

Investors might hope for some reassurance at a June 17 webinar focused on the future of custom silicon technology for AI infrastructure, which Marvell said it would hold.

"While we are encouraged that the company still plans to address its custom silicon opportunity, where the firm noted 'great progress,' we also read into the indefinite rescheduling of its investor day as a likely negative indicator for the firm's near-term upcoming July quarter outlook," wrote Benchmark Research analyst Cody Acree in a research note.

Acree lowered his estimates for Marvell's revenue for its fiscal 2026 year -- ending Jan. 31 2026 -- to $8.11 billion from $8.19 billion previously and his full-year earnings per share forecast to $2.74 from $2.80.

The Benchmark analyst lowered his target price to $95 from $135. However, he kept a Buy rating on the stock and recommended investors take advantage of the weak share price.

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