Al Root

Electric-vehicle start-ups Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group both reported first-quarter earnings on Tuesday evening. Reports typically bring fireworks, but not this time.

Rivian reported better-than-expected gross profits but cut full-year delivery guidance to a midpoint of 43,000 vehicles, down from a prior 48,500 vehicles. But the company's lower-cost platform, called R2, is on schedule for 2026.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called results "strong" and guidance "conservative" in a Wednesday report, noting earnings guidance didn't change despite lower expected deliveries, reflecting Rivian's focus on reducing costs. He lowered his price target on Rivian stock to $18 from $20, and kept a Buy rating.

What also hasn't changed much -- so far -- is Rivian's stock price. Shares were down just 0.2% in premarket trading at $13.48, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

That's a surprise. Investors are used to far more volatility. Rivian stock has traded in the range from about $9 to $19 over the past 12 months. The $10 spread is about 70% of the current stock price. The range for Toyota Motor stock amounts to about 40% of the current stock price. What's more, options markets implied shares would move about 10%, up or down, following earnings. Shares have moved an average of about 4% over the past four quarterly reports.

Lucid shares are in the same boat, up just 0.4% in premarket trading. Options markets implied a move, up or down, closer to 15%. Shares have moved an average of 8% following the past four quarterly reports. Shares have traded in the range from $1.93 to $4.43 over the past 12 months. The $2.50 spread is more than 100% of the recent stock price.

Lucid investors might have expected a bigger bump. The company reported sales in line with company guidance and reiterated guidance to produce 20,000 vehicles in 2025. (Production and sales should roughly align.) Lucid produced 9,029 vehicles in 2024.

"We continue to believe that Lucid benefits from a strong partnership with the [Saudi investment funds] and differentiated technology," wrote Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard in a Wednesday report, while noting a new SUV was on sale now, and a new midsize car was on track for 2026. He rates Lucid stock at Hold and has a $3 price target.

Better gross profits, guidance cuts, new vehicles, and even maintained guidance could have been expected to produce big stock swings in either direction.

Investors appear stuck. President Donald Trump's import tariffs are part of the reason. Rivian and Lucid don't import any of the cars they sell domestically, but they face tariffs on some car parts. Rivian said tariffs would push up its capital spending to $200 million in 2025, relatively to early expectations. (Imported equipment is more expensive.)

Aside from direct tariff impacts, investors are sure what tariffs will do to the U.S. economy and EV demand in 2025 and beyond.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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May 07, 2025 08:26 ET (12:26 GMT)

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