摩根士丹利:美国利率走低、期限溢价上升料令美元承压

金融界
08 May

摩根士丹利策略师表示,美元对美国利率的整体敏感度上升,同时该货币与美国国债期限溢价之间出现了新的负相关关系,这应会进一步令美元承压。

“结果显示,如果美国利率的走势与我们同事预期的一致,美元指数应会进一步下跌6%,”摩根士丹利的David Adams和Dominic Krummenacher及其团队在周三的报告中写道

他们补充说美元兑日元和瑞郎的走弱将最为明显,其次是兑欧元和英镑。

摩根士丹利分析师指出,美元“目前与期限溢价的上升呈负相关,这反映出不确定性上升和市场波动加剧正令美元承压,而非形成提振。”

期限溢价通常被定义为投资者因持有较长期债券而要求的额外收益。

摩根士丹利公开的交易建议包括:

在143.30做空美元/日元,目标位135,止损位151;

在1.1360做多欧元/美元,目标位1.20,止损位1.11。

责任编辑:栎树

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