Odaily星球日报讯 HTX Research 研究员 Chloe（@ChloeTalk1）在最新一期 HTX DeepThink 专栏中分析表示，比特币重回 10 万美元，但市场尚未出现“狂热式上涨”的迹象，比特币期权隐含波动率（IV）稳定在 50%至 55%，远低于历史牛市顶部常见的 80%以上；CME 比特币期货未平仓合约约为 148 亿美元，低于 2020 年特朗普当选时的 200 亿美元峰值。如果美债收益率不重新升破 4.8%，且 ETF 资金持续流入，比特币有望在 105,000 至 115,000 美元之间震荡整固，等待下一轮突破契机。 同时 Chloe 指出，市场仍需警惕中美与欧美之间贸易谈判可能不顺利的风险，潜在的贸易摩擦升级可能对全球市场情绪产生负面影响，进而对比特币等风险资产构成压力。 值得一提的是，上周的 HTX DeepThink 专栏曾结合宏观数据，预测 5 月初或出现流动性窗口，使资金回流加密市场。
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