智通财经APP获悉,电力股早盘走高,截至发稿,华电国际(01071)涨2.95%,报4.54港元;龙源电力(00916)涨2.91%,报6.37港元;华能国际(00902)涨2.64%,报5.06港元;华润电力(00836)涨1.14%,报19.5港元。
华源证券指出,火电运营商2025年一季度业绩持续改善,但分化更加严重,北方机组业绩改善明显,长三角等传统电价高地区域内再分化。从盈利能力看,京津冀区域一季度ROE在4%上下,高于全国性火电(3%左右),而长三角区域火电公司ROE最低(均值2.4%)。从资产质量上看,长三角区域公司经营活动生产的现金流更强、盈利质量更高。从投资的角度,尽管北方机组今年业绩改善明显,但是已经反映到估值层面。
方正证券认为,火电企业机组地域分布上的差异将导致量价影响不同,其中机组多位于电价跌幅小或发电量增速高的地区的火电企业,由燃料成本下降带来的利润增厚作用或更为明显。展望全年,火电企业或面临量价成本的三重下滑,多空博弈格局将愈发明显,企业业绩分化或进一步加剧。且机组分布位于电价跌幅低且电力供需偏紧地区的企业在2025年Q1业绩表现或相对更好,建议关注华能国际、华电国际。
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