金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，鸿腾精密(06088)2025年第一季度收入同比增长14%，净利润同比下降38%，低于预期，分别占该行2025全年预测的22%/3%。业绩低于预期的主要原因是1Q25 GPM下降和外汇逆风影响。展望未来，考虑到美国关税的影响和宏观经济的不确定性，公司下调了2025年智能手机（同比下降15%）和系统产品（-5%至+5%同比增速）指引，而考虑全球供应链协调成本，公司上调了运营成本指引。因此，该行将F25-26E每股收益下调了10-18%，以反映2025年一季度的业绩和较低的指引。
总体而言，该行预计由于关税/宏观经济疲软以及服务器升级放缓，短期内出现不利因素，但该行对人工智能服务器产品需求、印度AirPods产能增加以及2025年的汽车业务并购进展保持乐观看法。该股目前估值为FY25/26E 8.3倍/6.3倍市盈率，具有吸引力。基于此前的14.1倍FY25E市盈率，维持“买入”评级，新目标价为3.48港元（前值：3.86港元）。
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