【农业农村部：预计新年度棉花消费740万吨，较上年度小幅调减20万吨】金十期货5月12日讯，本月对2024/25年度棉花供需形势估计值与上月保持一致。本月预测，2025/26年度，中国棉花播种面积为2878千公顷（4317.0万亩），较上年度增1.4%。新疆棉花目标价格补贴政策稳定，棉农植棉积极性较高，面积稳中略增；内地棉区受比较效益低、机械化推广难度大等因素影响，面积继续下滑。棉花播种出苗期间主产区综合气候条件适宜，预计单产为每公顷2172公斤（每亩144.8公斤），与上年度持平。棉花产量625万吨，较上年度增1.4%。受美国滥施关税影响，棉花消费存在偏弱预期，但未来仍有一定不确定性，预计新年度棉花消费740万吨，较上年度小幅调减20万吨，进口量下调10万吨至140万吨。
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