HTX DeepThink:比特币重回10万美元,市场未现狂热迹象,警惕中美贸易摩擦风险

Blockbeats
Yesterday

BlockBeats 消息,5 月 9 日,HTX Research 研究员 Chloe(@ChloeTalk1)在最新一期 HTX DeepThink 专栏中表示,比特币虽已重返 10 万美元,但当前市场仍未出现“狂热式上涨”迹象。比特币期权隐含波动率(IV)维持在 50%-55% 区间,明显低于历史牛市顶部的 80%+ 水平;CME 比特币期货未平仓合约约 148 亿美元,亦低于 2020 年特朗普当选时的 200 亿美元峰值。

Chloe 指出,若美债收益率不重新突破 4.8%,且 ETF 资金持续流入,BTC 或将在 105,000 至 115,000 美元区间震荡整固,静待新一轮突破契机。同时她提醒,需关注中美及欧美之间贸易谈判的不确定性,若贸易摩擦加剧,或将对市场情绪和加密资产价格形成压力。

值得一提的是,Chloe 在上周专栏中曾通过宏观数据分析,预判 5 月初可能出现流动性窗口,为资金回流市场创造条件。

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