0746 GMT - The probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months has fallen, Goldman Sachs says in a note, citing optimism from the de-escalation in U.S.-China. trade tensions. The bank's economists lowered the odds of a recession to 35% from 45%, noting their recent agreement will result in a slightly smaller increase in the effective tariff rate than expected. The Trump administration looks likely to announce other preliminary trade deals over the next few weeks, which could further lower the U.S. effective tariff rate, they add. Given the trade developments and meaningful easing in financial conditions over the past month, Goldman raises its 2025 U.S. growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point to 1.0%, and pushes back the expected start of Fed rate cuts to December from July. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 13, 2025 03:46 ET (07:46 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.