高盛集团将美国经济衰退概率预测从45%调降至35%，成为首家采取此举的顶级投行。
上月全球多家券商曾上调对美国及全球经济衰退的预期，担忧关税争端可能重创商业信心并拖累增长。
高盛在周一的报告中同时将2025年美国GDP增长预期上调0.5个百分点至1%。鉴于增长前景改善，该行现预期美联储在2025-2026年将累计降息三次，首次降息时点调整至今年12月（原预测7月），后续降息预计在2025年3月和6月。
“随着经济增长展现韧性、失业率升幅收窄，政策支持的必要性降低，降息理据已从防范风险转向货币政策正常化。”高盛在报告中阐释观点调整逻辑。
在另一份报告中，高盛将标普500指数年终目标点位从5900点上调至6100点，理由包括关税压力和衰退风险缓解。该指数周一收报5844.19点。
与此同时，花旗集团周一宣布将其对美联储首次降息的预期时点从6月后移至7月。
责任编辑：王许宁
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