【几内亚矿业“大地震”氧化铝期货暴涨，下一个资源风险在哪里？】金十期货特约国信期货点评：5月16日夜盘，国内氧化铝期货因几内亚矿业“大地震”而暴力拉升，主力合约半小时内涨停，涨幅超6%。此次波动源于几内亚的突发政策限制，以及全球资源民族主义的爆发。几内亚政府近期大规模撤销矿业许可证，包括Axis矿区停工，且矿业监管风暴已从铝土矿扩散至黄金、钻石、石墨和铁矿石等多领域，标志着几内亚为代表的新一轮全球资源民族主义全面爆发未来将冲击不断！市场对几内亚矿业政策大地震的恐慌放大了期货价格波动，情绪驱动下的资金博弈成为短期主导因素。短期看，氧化铝价格仍受检修减产和矿价成本支撑，预计突破3000大关后尝试站稳呈现偏强震荡；中长期需关注几内亚政策执行力度及新投产能释放节奏（如印尼南山200万吨项目），警惕上方阻力3200元及3500元附近强阻力可把握市场过山车行情机会，警惕未来价格反转风险。
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