【4月CPI意外降温，黄金谨慎上行】金十期货特约光大期货点评：5月13日，COMEX黄金价格上涨0.82%至3254.50美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.36%至765.30元/克。1. 数据方面，美国4月未季调CPI年率 2.3%，预期2.40%，前值2.40%；4月季调后核心CPI月率 0.2%，预期0.30%，前值0.10%。2. 关税方面，美国国家经济委员会主任表示目前贸易谈判桌上出现大约20-25份协议，接近敲定多份协议。3. 降息方面，特朗普再次呼吁降息，表示没有通胀，汽油、能源、食品杂货以及几乎所有其他商品的价格都在下跌，美联储必须像欧洲和中国那样降低利率。最新CME“美联储观察”数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8%，降息25个基点的概率为8.2%，到7月维持利率不变的概率为61.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为35.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.7%。4. 综合而言，美国4月CPI意外降温，但是市场并未明显调整6月降息的预期，黄金谨慎上行，依旧需要关注贸易协议对避险资金流向的影响。
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