金吾财讯 | 国金证券研报指，龙源电力(00916)是全球最大风电运营商，技改+自建+集团注入多元驱动装机增长。公司背靠国能集团，是以新能源业务为主的大型综合性发电集团。
该行指，新能源进入全面市场化新阶段，风电资产脱颖而出。“136号文”标志着新能源进入全面入市的新阶段，风电出力的非同时性特征使其现货市场交易电价、利用率情况好于光伏。在市场化交易电价折价20%的假设下，测算弃电率从0%提升至20%、机制电量占比由100%下降至0%（相当于平均电价下降20%），将导致典型风电项目IRR下降6.15pcts。
该行续指，公司风电资产质量具备优势，有望在全面市场化竞争中崭露头角。参考“136号文”对存量新能源项目机制电量及机制电价的规定，假设公司存量项目平均上网电价保持稳定、增量项目平均上网电价较上一年下降约20%，预计公司25~27年风电平均上网电价同比变化幅度分别为-1.3%/-1.2%/-1.7%。
该行预计公司25~27年EPS分别为0.83/0.90/0.98元人民币，当前股价对应PE分别为7/7/6倍。给予公司25年8倍PE，对应目标价7.18港元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
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