Glassnode:比特币短期持有者开始获利回吐,但仍有上涨空间

Blockbeats
May 16, 2025

BlockBeats 消息,5 月 16 日,Glassnode 发文表示比特币短期持有者开始获利回吐。短期持有者的已实现利润(STH Realized Profit)已飙升至其 90 日平均水平的正 3 个标准差左右,反映出获利了结活动明显上升。然而在以往的周期中,尤其是在价格向历史高点(ATH)攀升期间,该指标往往会上升至正 5 个标准差以上。这表明,要压倒不断流入的买盘需求,通常需要更强烈的获利了结压力。

比特币回升至历史高点附近的上涨,主要由现货市场推动,得益于强劲的链上增持和链下资金流入。需求主要来自现货 ETF 以及像 Coinbase 这样的主要现货交易平台。95,000 美元附近形成了一个关键的成本支撑区,加之卖压减缓,进一步巩固了这一上涨趋势的强劲。

然而,衍生品市场似乎仍在追赶,未平仓合约量和资金费率尚未完全跟上现货市场的上涨势头。期权市场的持仓显示出谨慎但乐观的态度,而期货市场目前几乎没有出现过度的多头杠杆迹象。

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