金吾财讯 | 光伏太阳能股逆市走强,截至发稿,协鑫科技(03800)涨10.59%,福莱特玻璃(06865)涨3.16%,协鑫新能源(00451)涨2.99%,信义光能(00968)涨1.52%,新特能源(01799)涨1.69%。消息面上,中信建投发布研报称,从2024年年报及2025年一季报情况来看,光伏行业盈利能力明显回落。但当前光伏行业报表端底部已经出现,四季度大量固定资产减值以及一季度东南亚双反影响已体现至报表,预计盈利能力进一步恶化概率较小。从产能端来看,行业扩产意愿受低盈利影响已明显下降,固定资产增速预计未来一年将大幅回落,但存量产能仍明显高于需求。行业后续需要重点关注上游去库以及产能出清进度。目前电池环节仍存在一定技术迭代,现金紧张的企业后续无法进行TOPCon改造升级或者BC产能建设,无法进行升级的TOPCon产能会逐步难以获取订单,并淘汰出市场,从而实现电池环节的产能出清。
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