【原油内外盘套利周度追踪】SC需求偏淡下内外价差走弱，短期套利机会观望为主
来源：能源研发中心
套利追踪：
1）价差：5月9日，SC 夜盘1-3月差为4.3元/桶，换算成0.59美元/桶； Brent 1-3月差为0.87美元/桶，WTI 1-3月差为0.99美元/桶。SC夜盘-Brent主力合约为1.75美元/桶，SC夜盘-WTI主力合约为4.59美元/桶。
2）套利：①估值：5月9日凌晨2：30，Brent 2507盘面价为62.89美元/桶，SC 2508盘面价为456.7元/桶，测算SC 2508盘面理论价为472.2元/桶，盘面估值偏离程度-3.29%。②利润：测算SC2508盘面到岸利润-15.54元/桶，折合-2.15美元/桶。③价差：SC2508-Brent2507盘面差为0.19美元/桶，理论差2.33美元/桶，盘面价差低于理论价差。（注：本周Brent首行为2507；SC首行为2506；其中M代表时下5月）
3）总结：①月差来看，本周油价止跌回升，月差相比周初回暖。在印巴局势地缘升温和中美贸易谈判发展下宏观情绪缓和，油价市场因OPEC+增产政策带来的悲观情绪有所修复。②内外价差来看，SC-Brent跨区价差弱势震荡。当下国内现货贸易商普遍观望，叠加二季度检修期，SC需求相对平淡。③短期来看，由于原油市场面临供应过剩加剧的压力，时间对多头来说并不友好。随着油价重新迎来阻力区域，利多因素基本得到计价，油价继续上冲难度增加，后续供需层面压力将重新回归市场，油价接下来遇阻重新回落的概率较大。目前国内炼厂检修期，加工消费需求偏弱，SC基本面处于弱势，跨区价差震荡偏弱看待，短期观望为主。
责任编辑：赵思远
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