智通财经APP获悉，中美经贸高层经瑞士日内瓦经贸会谈后谈达成积极共识，宣布将大幅降低双边关税水平。高盛就最新进展发表观点：“鉴于近期事态发展及过去一个月金融条件的大幅宽松，我们将2025年经济增长预测上调0.5个百分点至第四季度同比1%，并将未来12个月经济衰退概率下调至35%。”
高盛现预计美联储将在12月(而非此前预测的7月)进行首次降息，该行还将核心PCE通胀路径峰值下调至3.6%(此前为3.8%)。
此前，高盛预计美国对华关税税率的大幅下调，对美国整体有效关税税率的影响应较为有限。
该行认为“对中国关税放松仅会使美国当前有效关税税率小幅下降(不足2个百分点)”，即使考虑这一程度的降幅，美国整体关税水平仍将显著高于且覆盖范围远大于市场年初预期
尽管关税战停火是好消息(标志着特朗普政府从引发国内外经济灾难的边缘后退)，但当前关税仍处于二战以来的最高水平。
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