金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，25Q1上市银行营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比-1.7%、-2.0%、-1.2%，息差下降、债市波动为业绩下滑主要拖累。大行、股份行归母净利润增速转负，部分区域行业绩韧性较强。一季度银行息差仍处于下行通道，且年初以来债市利率波动，拖累营收利润增速。预计在年初集中重定价压力下，一季度为业绩低点，全年有望修复。但后续仍需关注关税落地对信贷量价质的影响、LPR降息节奏及银行信用成本释放空间。截至2025年4月30日，银行板块PB（lf）估值为0.65倍，2010年以来分位数为20.7%，处于较低水平。横向看，当前银行行板块PB（lf）位于Wind30个行业末尾，板块估值、持仓低位，把握优质个股结构性机会。重点关注：1）息差降幅收窄，负债成本优化持续显效，个股表现分化；2）其他非息在高基数下普遍回落，中收增速修复；3）信贷增速平稳，增量较去年同期略多；4）存款增长修复，股份行改善较为明显；5）资产质量整体稳健，拨备略有波动。政策预期向好，推荐：1）质优个股；2）港股大行股息优势突出、估值性价比高。
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