新秀丽(1910.HK)日前公布首季业绩，中金发表报告指，其销售额和利润率均低于预期，主要由于亚洲地区表现逊预期及北美批发订单节奏错位。面对宏观不利因素、外部竞争加剧、外汇汇率风险、二次上市时间不确定性，以及关税不确定性等，下调今明两年盈利预测，将目标价调低20%，至20港元，维持“跑赢行业”评级。
中金指，在业绩电话会议管理层称，Tumi品牌在内地表现强劲；第二季至今销售增速与首季相似；管理层预计次季毛利率保持稳定，经调整EBITDA利润率略有改善；与其他消费品相比，行李箱行业未见明显提前备货行为；首季在美国销售产品中有14%来自中国，料今年底比例将降至1%至5%。为应对潜在关税上调，该集团拟采取多项举措。此外，管理层认为今年全球旅客料增5%，可能意味行李箱需求有增长潜力；又表示正持续推进美国双重上市计划，但密切关注市场环境。监于在美国关税不确定性背景下消费情绪疲软，中金将该集团今年收入和净利润预测分别下调3%和12%，至35.4亿美元和3.27亿美元；明年收入和净利润预测分别下调4%和18%，至37.5亿美元和3.48亿美元。下调目标价至20元，对应11.5倍2025年市盈率，较当前股价具30%上升空间。
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