BlockBeats 消息，5 月 13 日，QCP 发布每日市场观察称，中美两国同意暂时降低关税，这一缓和引发了强烈的风险资产上涨，美国股市开盘跳涨 3%，市场预期跨境贸易将复苏。作为传统避险资产和保护主义对冲工具的黄金，在消息公布后下跌近 3%，随后收窄跌幅。市场回归更传统的宏观格局——美元走强、国债收益率上升、黄金走弱——推动了跨资产类别波动率卖压。VIX 指数回落至 18，比特币前端波动率压缩了超过 5 个波动率点。比特币和以太坊在关税消息公布后最初下跌，目前分别稳定在 10.3 万美元和 2400 美元左右。但市场内部出现了轮动迹象。比特币的市占率已跌破 63%，而其他加密货币特别是以太坊开始表现出色。
比特币仍陷入“数字黄金”与风险资产代理身份之间的拉锯战，这种矛盾继续模糊其方向性判断。随着宏观叙事从保护主义转向贸易乐观情绪，比特币可能维持区间震荡。尽管如此宏观环境的转变可能影响衍生品资金流。较长的投资周期通常支撑后端期权需求，减少前端看跌期权对冲需求，并导致波动率曲线变陡。
相比之下以太坊资金费率保持中性，价格突破并非由投机过剩驱动。价格突破 2400 美元与 Pectra 升级的推出相吻合，开始看到较长期限期权流量的重新出现，这可能是以太坊定位为市场下一个主要配置资产的早期信号。
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