【山金期货：油价冲高回落利多兑现，难破前期减产底压力】金十期货5月13日讯，隔夜油价冲高回落，中美关税谈判利多支撑反弹后，遇前期减产底压力回落。供需看原油仍整体承压，OPEC+增产或为较确定事件，伊拉克称5、6月降低出口量、俄罗斯称产能回到1080万通/日水平，供应端的有效支撑或仍期待OPEC+的产量约束，需求端仍难看到确定性增量，远期看能源需求至少部分被电力替代，甚至原油估值基础会发生变化，短期或有地缘及中美关税协商支撑的反弹，但从更高维度看，需求增量难寻的前提下、油价在OPEC+退出减产跌破减产底后，估值难回减产底之上，除非有能够对冲OPEC+增产的供应损失、或有确定性的需求增量，短期强利多推动油价反弹后有再回供需交易的可能，进而仍面临前期减产底的压力。技术角度下，油价以暴跌形式下穿多年的减产底后反弹至65美元/桶附近再次形成下行趋势，美油周线级别呈现破位加回试加震荡下行状态，短线反弹后压力位参考美油62.3美元/桶附近，交易端中期仍维持逢高沽空思路，空头谨慎持有。
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