金吾财讯 | 高盛在一份报告中表示，由于贸易紧张局势缓和带来的乐观情绪，美国在未来12个月发生经济衰退的可能性已经下降。高盛的经济学家将美国经济衰退的发生概率从45%下调至35%，并指出，最近达成的协议将导致实际关税税率的增幅略低于预期。该行还表示，特朗普政府可能会在未来几周内宣布其他初步贸易协议，这可能会进一步降低美国的实际关税税率。鉴于贸易形势的发展和过去一个月金融条件的明显放松，高盛将对2025年美国经济增长的预期上调0.5个百分点至1.0%，并将美联储开始降息的预期时间从7月份推迟至12月份。
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