由于贸易紧张局势的缓解推动了“买美国”交易卷土重来,高盛上调了美股目标。
David Kostin等策略师目前预期,标准普尔500指数未来12个月内将触及6,500,高于先前的 6,200。新预估意味着较周一收盘水平上涨约 11%。
此前,世界两大经济体的谈判代表同意暂时降低关税,导致华尔街股市周一上涨,交易员押注美国经济或能避免衰退。然而,高盛仍保持谨慎。
策略师们在一份报告中写道:“市场对经济增长前景已属乐观的预期,以及围绕经济和盈利增长即将放缓程度的不确定性,可能会在未来几个月内对权益乘数(equity multiple)构成上限。”
高盛3月份已两度下调标普500指数预测,提及美国经济衰退风险上升,以及关税相关的不确定性加剧。策略师们表示,尽管最新协议缓解了这种担忧,大型科技股尤其应该会复苏,但整体获利前景并不均衡。
责任编辑:王永生
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