【恒力石化突发检修，乙二醇大涨4%】金十期货特约光大期货点评：受本周中美关税谈判乐观走向影响，能化品需求边际修复，周三板块继续走强，乙二醇涨幅相较于前两日明显扩大。从背后传导因素来看，恒力石化乙烯裂解装置意外停车检修，其下游乙二醇提前进行180万吨的检修，预计维持一个月时间。产量大幅减少15万吨/月，在供应收紧的预期下，5-6月份去库力度增强，乙二醇价格受到提振，短期或维持偏强运行。1. 基本面来看，除恒力石化的意外检修，陕西一180万吨/年的合成气制乙二醇企业其中一线于昨日起执行检修，预计时长在18天附近。东北两套合计180万吨/年的MEG装置于今日临时停车，预计停车时长在一个月以上；该装置此前计划于6月中旬起执行为期45天的检修。装置检修继续，供应端维持偏紧预期。2. 与此同时，关税下降后，终端订单修复，并存在抢出口预期，乙二醇下游聚酯工厂开工将再次提高至 94.2%。长丝短纤库存压力节前大幅缓解之后，近期开工均有所回升，后续仍有瓶片装置存重启计划，聚酯负荷市场主流预期大幅上修，预计 5 月月均负荷在 94%附近。受下游高开工的影响，乙二醇5月去库预期较强，短期价格或延续强势，但需警惕原油价格回调带来的成本坍塌风险。
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