金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，短期内，美债利率走高至接近4.5%、美国经济压力边际显现、市场在关税预期落地后暂时失去交易主线等都可能扰动港股市场。但无论是风险溢价还是经济压力的尾部风险都有所减缓，港股整体下行压力收窄。从绝对收益层面，趋势性上行空间打开需要内需政策和经济转好的进一步催化。后续关税问题不排除有反复，但中国资产相对表现逻辑依然成立。往前看，美国对华关税水平低于市场预期，出口链压力减弱下中国增长预期或抬升，尤其是在此前并未跟随其他货币升值的情况下，人民币及人民币资产均有补涨空间。历史上看，人民币走势与港股收益相关性较强。人民币走强能够同时改善香港贸易条件，并且提升整体人民币资产吸引力。该行依然看好港股相对全球市场的收益表现。操作上，建议配置：1）具备政策刺激预期的泛消费，尤其是同时受益于 AI 应用落地和内需预期改善的标的；2）一季度业绩稳定，盈利预期抬升明显、自主可控逻辑坚实、存政策预期支撑的港股硬科技方向；3）红利仍可作为底仓配置，建议关注存 AI 相关进攻性逻辑支撑的通信方向以及受益于人民币资产重估、业绩稳定、赔率较好的金融板块等。
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