金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，关税影响下，4月工业生产边际走弱，但在贸易分流带来的出口韧性下仍保持稳健，消费及固定资产投资均有所减速，或显示“以旧换新”政策对部分品类（如汽车和电子产品）的拉动有所退坡。高频数据显示，财政支出增长经过3个月的较高增长后也可能高位放缓，内需及通胀指标回升基础仍待夯实。往前看，5月中美关税降级后“抢出口”可能再度推高生产及出口增长，然而，短期回升后中长期外需不确定性犹存，货币和财政政策亦有必要继续宽松，托举增长动能回升，应对外需不确定性。5月1-18日华泰出口需求日度指数（HDET）同比录得-2%，或显示外贸景气度较4月有所回落，但相较于5月前两周呈现明显改善，显示短期中美关税降级后“抢出口”加速。 5月7日国新办召开介绍“一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期”的新闻发布会，央行宣布降准50bp，普遍降息10bp，结构性贷款降息25bp，各项结构性货币政策工具亦全面扩容。关注金融稳增长一揽子政策发力下能否推动社融回升，尤其是再贷款工具是否很快落地使用此。此外，5月以来政府债（国债+地方政府债）净发行约1万亿元，同比多增约4,718亿元，显示财政扩张力度边际改善。
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