智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，一个月期本港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)本月累跌约280个基点至1.2%，主要由于香港银行体系流动性过剩。该行预期今年至2027年1个月期HIBOR平均值分别为3.25%、2.85%和2.71%。较低的HIBOR有助住宅物业价格上涨及降低开发商借贷成本。该行对覆盖香港发展商今年每股盈利预测维持不变，明年及后年每股盈利预测上调2%及6%，维持对新鸿基地产(00016)及长实集团(01113)“买入”评级。
在实体市场中，H按利率应已重设至比最优惠利率上限低约50至100个基点，为2022年第三季以来首次。历史数据显示，在按揭利率同比下降超过50及100基点年份，住宅楼价同比增长约6.8%及8.9%，家庭收入同比增长约4.9%及5.4%。该行预计当前私人市场2.8万个未售现楼库存需约20个月清理，预计达到中期库存水平需约10个月，重申今年住宅楼业保持平稳，将明年及后年预测从之前的升3%及4%上调至升5%及6%。
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