金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，从2025Q1来看，得益于前期订单兑现，家电公司外销增速显著高于内销，主要因：1）关税扰动下，美国提前补库；2）新兴市场快速发展。展望后续，该行认为，在中美贸易摩擦缓和、新兴市场放量的背景下，家电外销景气仍会持续。近期已经下达今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下达超过1600亿元，后续还有1400亿元左右。该行认为国补拉动效果有望延续。2025年中央及地方政策将微波炉、净水器、洗碗机、电饭煲等4类产品纳入补贴范围，部分地区政策及京东平台进一步扩展覆盖品类，叠加天猫、淘宝通过区域专享政策强化地方渗透，拉动厨小电需求进一步复苏，25Q1厨小电多数品类恢复增长。展望2025H2，该行预期国补政策将继续对家电行业产生拉动作用。内销受益国补，外销接单兑现，家电板块2024Q4、2025Q1业绩稳健，分板块看，白电和黑电业绩较亮眼。展望未来，1）内销随着国补推广，家电企业有望受益政策而起量，零售逐渐改善；2）外销对美出口转产海外、欧洲出口韧性较强、新兴市场需求仍高景气，后续外销增长有望延续；3）国补支撑小家电消费需求，小家电公司业绩有望回暖。
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