0936 GMT - China's April activity data was mixed but has enough upside to help turn Nomura analysts more upbeat on the economy's outlook. The U.S.-China trade truce is a material positive, as exporters might try to front-load shipments before the 90-day pause ends, they say. Beijing's expanded consumer goods trade-in program has also helped retail sales exceed Nomura's expectations. For 2025, Nomura now sees GDP growth at 4.5% versus 4.0% previously. It raises its 2025 forecasts for exports and retail sales to 0.0% and 3.7% from -2.0% and 3.5%, respectively. Even if U.S.-China deals are reached, growth could slow, as the effect of frontloading and the trade-in program fades. Unless Beijing rolls out sizable stimulus, its "around 5%" growth target will be hard to reach, Nomura says. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 19, 2025 05:36 ET (09:36 GMT)

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