【市场分歧加大，警惕黄金投机多头拥挤度偏高】金十期货特约光大期货点评：上周，COMEX黄金价格下跌3.72%至3205.30美元/盎司，沪金主连下跌4.64%至751.80元/克。1. 数据方面，美国4月CPI同比增长2.3%，略低于预期和前值2.4%；核心CPI同比增长2.8%，持平于预期和前值2.8%；4月PPI环比下降0.5%，低于预期上涨0.2%和前值0%，核心PPI环比下降0.4%，低于预期上涨0.3%和前值0.4%。2. 降息方面，最新CME“美联储观察”数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为91.4%，降息25个基点的概率为8.6%，到7月维持利率不变的概率为66.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为30.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.3%。3. 综合而言，当前市场分歧在逐渐加大，黄金此前积累的投机多头拥挤度偏高，容易触发技术性抛售，短期来看黄金有继续偏弱的可能，关注金价在历史高位下的表现，操作上多看少动。
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