金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，今年4月，工业和服务业生产保持较快增长，外需景气度超预期保持在较高区间，但内需指标有所降温。从生产端来看，4月工业增加值增速回落但仍超市场预期，原因在于关税对出口的影响虽然显现，但主要集中在4月后半月。从需求侧来看，一季度“开门红”效应结束后，4月投资增速低于市场预期，制造业投资和房地产开发投资偏低是主要拖累。同时，4月“以旧换新”补贴刺激效果边际减弱带来社零增速有所回落。向后看出口链景气的变化和内需尤其是居民消费在下半年能否延续较快增长是值得关注的两条主线。随着本轮中美关税博弈出现破冰，预计二季度对东盟等地的“抢转口”以及对美“抢出口”仍会继续，叠加“以旧换新”对消费的刺激，从而支撑今年二季度GDP增速仍保持在5%以上。
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