金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，4月航司运力同比增速有所提高，三大航+春秋+吉祥供给同增7.8%（1Q25为4.8%），往后展望，该行认为行业供给增速将维持较低水平，配合航司收益管理，全年收益水平有望低开高走，叠加油价同比下降，航司盈利有望持续提升。该行看好暑运旺季航司兑现票价与盈利弹性，推荐航空板块。该行指，4月三大航客座率再次冲高，同比提升3.1pct至84.0%，相比19年同期高1.5pct，同时供给增速在低基数下回升，同增7.8%（1Q25为4.6%）。往后展望，该行认为较高的客座率或将为收益管理提供空间，票价提升有望持续兑现。根据民航局统计公报，截至2024年底我国客运机队为4126架，同增2.8%，2020-2024年复合增速仅为2.5%。该行认为由于上游制造商产能、发动机检修等问题，25年我国飞机引进及利用率或仍受限，使得民航供给增速或将从24年的17.1%大幅下降。同时航司收益管理逐步取得成效，根据航班管家数据，第19周（5/5-5/11）国内航线含油票价为733元，同增11.5%。该行认为供需结构向好，航司收益水平全年有望呈现低开高走态势，暑运旺季票价及盈利表现值得期待。
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