港股异动 | 优然牧业(09858)涨超4% 需求端政策预期增强 机构称奶价拐点有望自下半年开启

智通财经
May 19, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,优然牧业(09858)涨超4%,截至发稿,涨4.39%,报2.38港元,成交额1753.9万港元。

消息面上,华西证券指出,展望今年奶价,该行认为供给端出清或将持续,需求端随各项政策落地而逐步恢复,奶价拐点有望伴随中秋国庆“双节”消费旺季自25H2开启。中期来看,该行认为由于供给端产能去化后短期难以回补,未来2-3年或将维持紧平衡状态。公司作为行业龙头企业,有望在本轮行业调整中受益,未来周期反转将释放较大弹性。

招商证券近日表示,今年来各地不断出台生育补贴政策,有望带动乳制品消费需求的进一步复苏。飞鹤、伊利等企业先后响应国家号召,发放生育补贴(飞鹤补贴12亿,伊利补贴16亿,形式为产品补贴),外贸严峻下内需政策预期再加大。全年看好行业供需改善,叠加伊利等龙头企业轻装上阵,业绩释放盈利改善确定性更高。

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