天风证券-宝立食品-603170-收入稳健,BC双轮驱动-250520

市场资讯
20 May

  炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会!

(转自:研报虎)

  事件:2024年实现收入/归母净利润26.51/2.33亿元,同比+11.91%/-22.52%;24Q4实现收入/归母净利润7.21/0.60亿元,同比+18.24%/-0.49%;25Q1实现收入/归母净利润6.69/0.58亿元,同比+7.18%/-4.19%。

  25Q1复调承压,饮品甜点配料高增。24年公司复合调味料/轻烹解决方案/饮品甜点配料收入12.96/11.30/1.47亿元(同比+13%/+10%/+3%)。公司B端共销售近2600种产品,其中近三年开发的产品数量占比近60%;空刻意面实现营收9.2亿元(同比+6%),口味持续上新,连续4年全国意面零售额第一。25Q1复合调味料/轻烹解决方案/饮品甜点配料收入3.01/3.02/0.47亿元(同比-1%/+13%/+35%)。25Q1餐饮增长较弱,复调业务承压;轻烹解决方案实现恢复性增长;饮品甜点配料增长较快。

  经销商数量同比增加,25Q1主要区域均有增长。24年华东/华南/华北/华中/东北/西南/西北/境外收入分别为20.8/0.9/1.6/0.8/0.8/0.3/0.2/0.3亿元(同比+11%/-3%/+0%/+21%/+17%/+56%/+91%/+25%);25Q1分别同比+4%/+70%/-7%/+5%/+10%/+46%/+150%/-25%。24年线上收入8.08亿元(同比+2%,营收占比31%)。25Q1末经销商同比+78家至465家,平均经销商收入同比-15%至22万元/家。

  盈利能力有所下滑,销售费用投放加大。24年毛利率/净利率分别同比-0.33/-3.05pct至32.81%/10.08%;销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别同比-0.12/-0.05/-0.17pct至14.52%/2.76%/0.04%,期间费用率基本稳健。25Q1毛利率/净利率同比+0.57/-0.69pct至32.61%/10.06%,销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别同比-0.48/-0.25/+0.06pct至14.38%/2.12%/-0.12%;净利率下降主要系其他收益减少。

  投资建议:复调保持稳健,后续有望受益于B端复苏以及新品推出节奏加快延续增势;轻烹业务C端回暖,有望实现双轮驱动。根据25Q1财报,我们略调整盈利预测,预计25-27年营收为29/33/36亿元(25-26年前值为29/32亿元),同增11%/11%/11%;归母净利润为2.72/3.12/3.56亿元(25-26年前值为2.69/3.07亿元),同比+17%/+15%/+14%,对应PE分别为20X/18X/15X,维持“买入”投资评级。

  风险提示:行业竞争加剧;消费需求不及预期;原材料价格波动的风险;市场拓展不及预期;新品推广不及预期的风险。

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