By Callum Keown
International travel to the U.S. bounced back in April after a slump in the previous month, offering a welcome boost for carriers including United Airlines and Delta Air Lines.
The number of overseas visitors to the U.S. rose 8% from a year earlier to just over three million in April, according to data from the government's International Trade Administration. Inbound visitors slumped 11.6% in March.
Oxford Economics analysts put the March drop down to a "growing wave of negative sentiment" toward the U.S. as a result of President Donald Trump's policies, along with heightened border security measures and more visible immigration enforcement.
The strong recovery means that overseas arrivals to the U.S. so far in 2025 are just 0.2% down compared to 2024.
The rebound was most pronounced in travelers from Western Europe -- visitor numbers jumped 12% in April after plunging 17% the previous month. The timing of Easter, a popular time for Europeans to travel, was also a contributing factor. The holiday fell in April this year, but in March last year.
Despite the March slump in inbound tourism, international travel was an area of strength for United and Delta in the first quarter.
United's international revenue rose 6.4% in the first quarter, while Delta's climbed by a mid-single digit percentage, the carrier said. Both airlines downplayed the slowdown in visitors to the U.S., noting that just 20% of international revenue comes from passengers from other countries.
Still, 20% isn't an insignificant portion. The comeback should help ensure the international segment remains resilient for carriers in the second quarter.
UBS analysts upgraded United and Delta to Buy from Neutral Monday, noting recent relief on tariffs following the 90-day pause on levies with China and the trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. They had downgraded the stocks and slashed their targets for the prices on April 7, citing the "rising risk of recession" following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs a few days earlier.
Their price target for United is now back at $105, just $2 below where it was before the downgrade, while Delta's is at $66, compared to $72 in April. Both stocks have gained around 40% since the S&P 500's low on April 8, but the targets imply each can jump another 30% from here.
Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com
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May 20, 2025 09:02 ET (13:02 GMT)
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