Apple Has Been The Worst Big Tech Stock Lately. Here's Why Investors Are Missing The Big Picture.

Dow Jones
Yesterday

One thing Apple users can agree on is that it's hard to imagine trading an iPhone or a MacBook for a Samsung smartphone or a Lenovo laptop. That's probably the biggest thing Apple has going for it amid the tariff noise.

Yet Apple Inc.'s stock $(AAPL)$ has been under pressure lately. As large technology stocks have roared back in May, Apple shares have missed out. The stock is down 8% so far this month. It's the only member of the "Magnificent Seven" that's in the red over that period, according to FactSet data. It's also the worst-performing stock of the bunch on a year-to-date basis, down 22%.

Friday's tariff-related scare added to the pain. Apple's stock closed 3% lower to clinch its eighth loss in a row.

But even as President Donald Trump threatened Apple on Friday with a 25% tariff if it didn't bring its manufacturing into the U.S., analysts aren't flinching and don't think investors should either. But that point comes with a caveat that's like a pilot telling passengers they're about to experience some turbulence. That's true, too, of Apple's stock. The short-term ride might be unpleasant, but arrival is still on time. So, if you're already invested, it's probably not a good idea to get off midflight.

That said, over a three- to five-year timeframe, there's a lot of reason to be confident in the company's growth prospects because the products are part of an admirably sticky ecosystem, according to Gil Luria, the head of technology research at D.A. Davidson. His view is that the services tacked on to Apple's hardware products will keep customers coming back. It's also true that many who buy one Apple product, like an iPhone, tend to buy another, like a MacBook, Luria noted. In short, the recent stock weakness isn't a statement on the health of the business. It's more of a relationship issue between Trump and Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook.

"If you get to a point where the president is posting in such a confrontational manner, that means the negotiation isn't going well," said Luria.

It's a setback, but it's not bad enough to send Luria back to his model to rework his outlook for the company. While an additional 25% tariff would hurt the company's profitability, he believes there's still a chance that negotiations between Apple and the White House could stave off the worst. If Apple products did take an additional 25% tariff hit, that would hurt earnings in the nearer term. However, the costs could be spread out by partially raising prices and passing some costs along to parts suppliers, Luria said. Additionally, Apple wouldn't be at a disadvantage relative to its competitors as Trump noted that Samsung (KR:005930) and other makers of smartphones would also be slapped with 25% tariffs on devices made overseas as they're imported to the U.S.

Angelo Zino, an analyst at CFRA, chuckled and called the tariff threat "noise," adding that it doesn't impact how he views Apple. "I don't think you can take too much away from these headlines," he said. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that Cook's relationship with the president isn't as strong as it may once have been, he noted. Under the first Trump administration, Cook was able to secure a tariff exemption.

Valuationwise, Apple's stock is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 26, below its "Magnificent Seven" peers Tesla Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. But Apple could see the slowest sales growth among the group, with a two-year estimated compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 5.1% through 2026. What that all means, said Luria, is that, despite slowed sales, investors still have a lot of confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Apple's stock trades at a premium compared with the S&P 500 SPX, which has a forward P/E of 21.2 and a two-year estimated sales CAGR slightly above Apple's at 5.6%. Meanwhile, Apple's forward P/E is slightly below that for the S&P 500 information-technology sector, which stands at 26.8. Yet the IT sector has a two-year sales CAGR more than double Apple's, at 11.3%.

Ted Mortonson, managing director at Baird, says Apple's bigger problem is that Siri's integration with Apple Intelligence has fallen behand. The company is at risk of losing market share to any contender able to release life-changing generative AI services. That's something Mortonson believes could happen through Alphabet's $(GOOG)$ $(GOOGL)$ Pixel phones or through Google's partnership with Samsung Galaxy and the integration of generative AI into that smartphone.

That risk means he wouldn't suggest investors be overweight the stock, and he believes a stock like Alphabet is a better bet given its cheaper forward P/E at 17.3 with a two-year estimated sales CAGR double Apple's, at 10.7%.

The next important event for Apple will be its Worldwide Developers Conference, which kicks off on June 9. The company will have a chance to wow customers with any updates, particularly on Apple Intelligence. But until then, Luria believes, he said, that investors should suspend judgment about the stock.

Overall, investing is based on an individual's risk tolerance. While Apple is still seen as a solid company, and a good stock to own, there may be better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere. As for investors who already own the stock because they like the company and believe in the business's long-term prospects, panic selling based on negative headlines is never a good strategy. Instead, investors should focus on the company's key drivers. And a big one right now is how well Apple can compete in generative AI services because that will help drive hardware sales and increase demand for Apple's services segment, including cloud storage.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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