【中东地缘局势升温，黄金迎来推升】金十期货特约光大期货点评：5月20日，COMEX黄金价格上涨1.83%至3292.60美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨2.11%至772.22元/克。1. 地缘方面，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊认为与美国的核谈判不会成功。美媒报道，美国情报部门发现，以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设施。2. 降息方面，美联储哈玛克表示需要更多的时间来了解商业决策是如何受到贸易政策的影响的，现在美联储最好的行动就是按兵不动；博斯蒂克表示消费者的财务状况不像三四年前那么强劲，有些人回到了疫情前的水平，甚至可能更弱。最新CME“美联储观察”数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.7%，降息25个基点的概率为5.3%，到7月维持利率不变的概率为70.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.4%。3. 综合而言，隔夜黄金迎来明显上冲，在市场对美联储降息预期没有太大变化下，背后主要原因是中东地缘局势升温导致的避险资金流入。
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