金吾财讯 | 华泰证券对4月财政数据点评。低基数下4月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比进一步上行至12.9%，显示财政政策总体维持温和宽松态势、但财政扩张动能环比季节性放缓。往前看，5月中美关税降级后“抢出口”窗口期可能继续支撑生产及出口增长，但中长期外需不确定性犹存，财政政策亦有必要进一步加力、以夯实总需求回升的基础。5月1-19日，华泰出口需求日度指数（HDET）同比录得-1.5%，较5月前两周降幅继续收窄，或体现短期中美关税降级后前期积压货品“抢出口”提速，但外需仍有较大不确定性。同时，4月商品房成交金额/面积同比降幅从3月的1.6%/0.9%走阔至6.7%/2.1%，或显示居民收入预期与地产需求边际走弱，对土地相关税收回升或形成一定制约。5月至今，低基数下地方债发行同比多增，显示财政扩张力度边际改善，年初至今地方专项债发行占全年额度的33.5%，快于去年的26.8%，但慢于2020/2022年同期的35.8%/38.8%。
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