【中信证券：特朗普税改法案导致的赤字担忧引发了“债券义警”叙事】金十数据5月23日讯，中信证券研报称，近期长端美债利率快速上行，我们对各因素分析如下：1）20Y美债拍卖需求较弱，但不是最差的情况，得标率超过5%这一整数关口吸引市场目光。2）穆迪下调美国主权信用评级对市场情绪 “火上浇油”，但实质意义有限，并非市场的核心关切。3）当前市场主线是《One Big Beautiful Bill》（OBBB）导致的赤字担忧引发了“Bond Vigilantes（债券义警）”叙事，导致长端美债利率快速上行。我们认为当前市场看跌美债情绪较高，长端美债利率短期仍有上冲可能，但在市场对近期负面因素都有较为充分的反应后，“美债义警”或将给特朗普“OBBB刺激美国经济增长能够扭转债务问题颓势”的“辩解”一次机会。若美国经济数据转弱，同时财政轨迹未能扭转，届时长端美债或将面临更大的抛售压力。此外，后续还需关注美国通胀反弹以及债务上限解决后美债供给释放等因素可能给美债利率带来的上行动力。
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